State Of The Collective Part 1: 2024 In Review, Sort Of...

At this point on the calendar, it's customary to do a review of the past year either in terms of the products that came out, or the sets/collections/projects that were started/progressed/finished that year.

I am limited to the latter, since the only new product I buy now is Allen & Ginter.  Stuart (of SR75 Cards) and I also broke a case of 2024 Heritage, but I've already documented that in detail.  So I'll give you bit of my take on the year, and then what I'm working on bringing in to my collection and what I'm trying to move out.

Thanks to Cardboard Catastrophes for the inspiration for this series of posts.

For a few consecutive years, I posted annual Collective Awards, but since my collecting has narrowed from (or never been) what's popular, they would look something like this now:

Favorite new product:  Ginter.  Heritage was fun, but didn't have retired players except for some of the inserts.  Didn't like Stadium Club.  Don't buy anything else.

Favorite thing about '24 Topps flagship: N/A - I stopped doing flagship in 2020.  Though I did like the design.

Favorite prospect set: Don't like prospects.  Don't even really like current players that much, except for my local NFL team.

Favorite shiny set:  Don't like shiny either, especially in things like Ginter and Heritage.  Got a hot box of the silver A&Gs though, and found a source for more, so I decided to go for it.

Favorite on-demand set:  Bleah.  I will go back and find my player collection guys when they appear, but won't pay more than a couple bucks for one.

Favorite high-end product:  Don't do those either. There have been a few years of Dynasty that look nice, but I don't collect anyone that appears in it.

Maybe, if I was into current/rookies

Favorite innovation from Fanatics or exclusive contracts:  Haven't seen any.  Have you?  Zebra-striped short print inserts are not an innovation.

Favorite grading company:  If I had to pick, it would be SGC, but only because I like the dark backgrounds in their slabs.  I own less than 20 graded cards total - most of those are T205 Giants - and a few more "formerly" graded cards.  Grading is also not a major factor in my hobby.

Favorite source for advice on what to collect:  I watch a few YouTubers, but they're mostly concerned with pre-war and/or HOF'er graded cards, which is fine, but not what I do.  I would think there are channels for set builders and "raw" bulk collectors like me, but I haven't found them yet.  The platforms like the "influencers" (read: investors) and company sites that hype up what to collect based on value are completely irrelevant.  I don't collect for the resale/flip value, I like what I like and collect it for nostalgia or connection reasons.

Apologies if a lot of that is the same old thing that I put in every other post or comment.  My tastes and criticisms haven't changed much over the years.

In general, I'd say 2024 was an OK year for my hobby.  I made a lot of progress on a couple vintage sets (Thanks Marv!), built several more through TCDB trades, and got a lot of player collection cards that way and by swapping from COMC sales.  Those sales and trades were the bulk of my activity on a daily and weekly basis.  Some of it was from the Storage Hoard that I mentioned in a March post.  I've recently added another vastly different batch that I've started to move through eBay too.  More on all that in the next couple posts.

Real Value

This card could be priceless!

At least every couple weeks, I go back and read my blog posts from past years.  Or I'll check the stats page and see which posts people have read in the past week.  It's always a very random sampling - I'm guessing it's what people are Googling and being led to, I'm not sure.  But anyway, today this post was in the list.

It was the last part of a list of items that originated in this post from Off Hiatus Baseball.  It's an adaptation of a 30 day music challenge that appeared on Twitter.  I completed my list in three posts.  And then I put this at the end:

That's what the most important thing about this hobby is - the connections we make.  The searching, finding, obtaining, cataloging, storing, admiring, and completing are all fun, but the trading, buying and selling, and discussing cards with other people, plus meeting the players depicted [on them] is the time to be valued most.  That personal value of a card is what drives the hobby.  It's not the dollar value, it's that it reminds you of a time with your Dad, or your friends, or witnessing a great ball game at the stadium, or home on TV.  That real-life experience of family, friends, and heroes is the actual benefit of hoarding these little cardboard slices.  They are merely colored and pressed paper, but what they can represent to an individual is a wide range of memories, feelings, and happiness.  And there's no such thing as too much of that!

Keep in mind that this was three years before the COVID boom.  I don't remember writing this specifically, but I think it sums up why I love these little slabs of cardboard so much. 

(The other reason has to do with the psychology of addiction to some degree, I'm sure.)

Let me know what you think....

Why I Am Not Into Grading

I've been thinking about this post for a long time, probably since I re-entered the hobby in the early 2000's, or at least since the Boom after the pandemic.  Mike from the Junk Wax Hero YouTube channel inspired me to write it after his video asking if grading was a scam.  I actually wrote this post a long time ago, but never published it apparently.  Might post that as a follow up.

My collecting style doesn't lend itself to grading in the first place.  I'm an old school set builder with tons of player collections and miscellaneous pursuits that all tend to pull in tons of bulk cards that are generally cheap.  I do have vintage sets, including the superstars, and the most expensive ones are kept in [the wrong kind of] holders separate from the binders or boxes containing the rest of the set.  The only ones that I've bought graded specimens of are my T205's.  (I did pick up a '57 Willie Mays this year, but only because the price was too good to pass up.)

I do think grading is useful for buying a card that you can't look at in person, and for authentication purposes (like my T205's), but that has it's flaws too.

So I won't say I'm totally against grading.  I actually submitted my first card for grading through COMC.  (It's one I was selling for a friend.)  But I have some major problems with many of the facets of that part of the hobby.  I'll try to illustrate them here.

Free The Prisoners - Slabs

Every graded card is imprisoned in a plastic shell, never to be touched, held, or smelled again.  At least with vintage cards, the smell is part of the appeal!  Plus, now you have to get a whole new set of storage supplies - bags, boxes and rubber bumpers.  And you can't put them in binders [very well], which is my favorite way to see them.

Say No To Crack - Inconsistency

The fact that someone can submit a card, get it back, be unsatisfied with the grade, and crack it out of the slab and send it back in (and sometimes get a much different grade), from the same company or a different one - kinda invalidates the authority of the grading companies.  If grading is supposed to be the final answer, then the answer should be the same.  But it isn't.  And it can be many reasons:  The amount of submissions someone makes, the mood of the grader that particular day, and simply the subjectivity of the human who's determining the grade.

And they should require that any card removed from a slab be un-registered!  They're not, so that means the population reports are inaccurate.  Speaking of which...

It Doesn't Add Up - Population Reports

The idea that the current number of a certain card that has been graded affects the value is ludicrous to me.  Now, if it's some pre-war scarce vintage issue then maybe.  But to say that something like a regular Topps issue card jumps in value because there have only been 12 of them that got a certain grade is ignoring so many factors.  My idea of the population report is that it's the count of people who decided to grade that card, with that particular company, and got that particular grade.  There are too many almost arbitrary decisions involved there.  It is NOT an indication of how many cards exist in the world in that condition - just how many that company has slabbed so far, which should have nothing to do with the value.  

Pump It Up - The Inflated Prices

This is the most illogical part of it for me.  Let me try to explain how I think about it.

This is a "raw" 1975 Topps Nolan Ryan.  Card number 500.  It is well centered, has sharp corners, and has nice color and eye appeal.  Without subjecting it to extreme magnification, or really anything more than casual scrutiny, I would say this was almost mint condition.

If you look at current copies for sale in similar condition on COMC, you see that the best ones are running about $40 to $50.

The left and center ones are on sale from $40+, and are better looking than the highest priced one on the right (at least the scans are better - an extra service by the site).  But in general, the going price for a great condition '75 Ryan is around the $50 range.  

Now, at least in my mind, the purpose of grading is to "certify" that the card is in that particular condition.  Mint, NrMt/Mt, Near-Mint, ExMt, Excellent, Very Good, Good, Fair, and Poor.  Numeric values are assigned to the different condition levels - some of which are expanded to fill a ten point scale, or even farther to fill a twenty point scale (with .5 scores in between).  

"Raw" cards have always been priced by condition - all the way back since the days when the Beckett book was still the authority on card values.  (Some people still do, but they're living in the past.)  The book listed two or three price values, but always had the chart to calculate the values for the conditions in between.  The High book column was the full retail price.  The Low column was the lowest price one could find if they dug deep and shopped around.  Most dealers quoted the High book price when selling a card - usually without much modification.

Essentially, the High book price was the value of a specimen of that card in the nicest condition.

Therefore, I think it is logical to say, (and I always have), that the value of a "10" should be no more than the high book value of the raw card.  Translated to today, that would be the average eBay or COMC sale price of the ungraded card in similar condition.

Lately, I've considered backing that down slightly to maybe a 9, since the companies are far stricter in giving 10's.  (At least PSA is.)

Because, what is really happening here?  

The card starts in a certain condition.

Bet you thought is was an 8-ish

The card is graded and therefore "certified" to be in that condition.  Then it is encased to prevent damage and handling to change that condition.  

Has the piece of cardboard actually changed?  No.

It's the same thing - just now it's "officially" that condition.  

What is the value?  

To me, it should be the same as the raw value, plus maybe the cost of grading, if it's being sold.

But is this what happens?  No.

Here is PSA's chart for graded '75 Ryans.  You can see that a 6 is close to the real raw value of the card today.  But the grades above that take massive leaps.  

Now, I would concede that a 10 is probably a rarity, so that would be worth a bit more, but not OVER 500 TIMES MORE!

Even the expected 8 score is valued at TEN TIMES the value of a similar raw card as shown in the COMC listings.  It makes no sense to me whatsoever.

It's a Near Mint card - officially.  So the value of a Near Mint card is $__.  Maybe plus the $35 for grading and if it's a 10, then what?  25% more?  Where do you get the other $400 from?  The prestige of PSA grading?  

Let's look at a couple other examples....

Low and High prices of 2006 Topps Derek Jeter on COMC - from $1 to $6.23.  28 of them.

Now modern cards should basically be almost perfect, right?  So 10's shouldn't be that much higher....

Well, they're charging $90 above the price of the card itself.  Or, let's do the math to add the grading cost and Gem 10 premium.  ($6 + $35) * 1.25 = $51.25.  Still just half...

And on to the ridiculous:

1987 Topps Mark McGwire - COMC starts just over a dollar.  There are over 1000 listings.  Highest is $21.  (Wish that guy luck).  Junk wax star - Nobody should price this over three to five bucks, right?

Survey said .... Bzzzzt!

Two hundred and twenty something more?  Child Please.  They are nowhere near rare.  And 10's can't be that tough to find.

But maybe there is hope....

I think these people are starting to figure it out...

I used to think (and see) that every graded card was inflated to several times the price of the ungraded card no matter what the score.  Lately, I have observed that there are slabbed copies available for about the same as a decent copy of the unburdened one.  So hopefully, we are seeing the end of these massively boosted price tags.  But it might put the auction houses out of business. 

In conclusion, grading isn't going anywhere.  There are too many collectors who only do high end cards and want them all graded.  And that's OK.  I will never be one of them.  There's room for everyone in the hobby.  And I'm not such a puritan that I won't take advantage of an increased price on the rare occasion that I'm trying to sell a card.

I do believe that there is a faction of people out there who are sickeningly rich who manipulate these prices among themselves.  The prices aren't real.  But the Gem 10's keep selling.  

I'll stick with raw cards in quarter and dollar boxes and stars at reasonable prices, thanks.  Collect what you like.

Just don't grade ALL the cards, please....

Saved From The Hype Monster

Before I get into the case break, I want to share another box opening that I did a few weeks ago.  

This one was part of the hoard that I am liquidating which is composed of mostly basketball.  If you know me, you know that is the one sport I don't really delve into.  I have a small Michael Jordan collection, but that is all baseball.  I have a couple other sets in one binder, but that's it.

Anyway, this collection has a lot of wax boxes, but the majority of them have already been opened.  There are, however, a few that weren't.  One was this 1999-2000 Upper Deck flagship box.  It's the size of a hobby box of the time, but it's more like a blaster in that it's priced at $20 and only has eight packs of ten cards.

I looked up the odds on the Database and put them in my eBay description:

Possible Inserts:

Basketball Heroes: Julius Erving (1:23 packs)
Future Charge (1:8 packs)
     Quantum Silver (/100), Gold (/25)
Game Jersey swatch
     (Kidd, Shaq, Duncan, Barkley, Garnett, Stockton, Van Horn, Olajuwon, Pierce, and Jordan 1:2500 packs)
     (Kobe, Pippen, Hill, Payton, Carter, Miller, Iverson, Robinson, Walker, Malone 1:288 packs)
Game Jersey Patches (1:7500 packs), Super (/25)
History Class (1:11 packs)
     Quantum Silver (/100), Gold (/25)
Jamboree (1:11 packs)
     Quantum Silver (/100), Gold (/25)
MJ: A Higher Power (1:23 packs)
     Quantum Silver (/100), Gold (/25)
MJ's Final Floor relics (1:2500 packs)
Now Showing (1:4 packs)
     Quantum Silver (/100), Gold (/25)

Pulling a jersey would be epic!  Especially if it was Jordan, Shaq, or Bryant!  The big names garner three and four digit crooked number prices on eBay!  

So full hobby boxes go for $750 or so on there.  Since this was just about a third of a hobby box, I put mine at $275 initially, I think.

It sat.  There were some followers.  But it sat.  I got a low ball offer the first few days.  But then nothing.  I figured it might get snatched up quick.  Nope.

So I let it on there for about two months at a lower price.  After that, I figured it isn't going anywhere.  So I took it down.  Thought there might be someone who messages me wanting to get it after it was taken down, but no.

After all that, I couldn't take the suspense.  

I opened it.

I'm ultimately glad I didn't sell it to someone for $245!

I snapped photos as I went, so they're not quite in logical order.  Here's the box topper ad.

"7 Packs plus 1 extra pack".  No UD - It's eight freakin' packs, OK?  Stop it.

So this is a typical pack, from what I recall.  Eight silver foil base cards (as opposed to the bronze foil in baseball and football) and two inserts.

Some decent names in the base cards.  And there were inserts that contained Jordan, et al, or were all Jordan.

Other insert sets were rookie-centric, of course.

The Jordan on the left is the most valuable card found in this box.  It goes for about $15.  No jersey, sorry.  No blockbuster pulls here.

I should have expected the absence of a big hit.  But what I really didn't expect was the absolutely HORRIBLE collation of the base cards within this box.  As you can see here, there were TRIPLES of a few cards, and doubles of a significant number as well.  I've lost track of the exact numbers, but out of 80 cards, 12 were inserts, and only about 50 couple were unique base cards.  Over a third of them were dupes within the same box!

I wouldn't have been surprised if the buyer immediately asked for a refund after blowing almost $250 for this.  It's really only worth about a tenth of that.  

I probably should have taken pictures of all the inserts at the end, but they'll likely end up trade bait on the Database after a while anyway.

Let me know if you've ever pulled something awesome from a small box like this, or ended up with jack squat from one.

Might Be A Good Idea...

As you probably know, I'm not one to pay much attention to the hype on modern cards and their exorbitant prices.  The stars today don't quite have the mystique or reverance to me that vintage guys do.  Which is not to say that there aren't a few players that will be in the record books and lore for a long time to come.  

Every once in a while I have to acknowledge that as it manifests itself in cards.

So a couple months ago, I went into my collection...

It's down here somewhere...

Of course it's on the bottom...

Writing on the corner of a box is rather difficult.  My handwriting is better than this.  But anyway...

OK, pull that one out...

Series 1 on the left,... Series 2 next,...hmm don't have wrappers for Update.  Oh well...

Ah, bonus SP Ruth!  OK, should be about right here...

Pull that chunk out...

Right about here...

There he is!

That's a little better, considering...

Figured I shouldn't leave him in there with the set for much longer.  I could put him in one of those big lucite holders with the four screws like I have all my other big money cards.  (I know, no one uses those any more.)  

Anybody else I might be neglecting in my sets for the last decade or so who is now over $50?

Know Your Role

At the risk of appearing to be the old man shouting "Get off my lawn!" to the new crop of hobby influencers and investors that have come to the forefront in recent years, I just have a few concerns or complaints. 

First, I would say that there's room for all of us in the arena, but certain practices or extremes are detrimental to the hobby.  While ideally, I would like to see it all return to a pre-COVID state, it's not likely to do so.  But if we can all pursue our goals without infringing on someone else's then we can peacefully

The fact that there are a lot of people that are viewing sports cards as an investment doesn't bother me, there can be some truth to it.  This is America, and if you want to make a few bucks selling cards at reasonable prices, then go for it.  Regular dealers have been doing it for years.  You just have to follow some basic good business practices.  

Any card is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.  The problem today is, somehow there are allegedly a lot of people who appear to be willing to pay 200 to several thousand percent over the numbers from a couple years ago.  I am not one of them.  I am familiar with the going rates on singles, star cards, retail packages and wax boxes from before COVID, and I don't see any reason to pay much more than that.  A retail blaster was $20.  Now they are three times that and up just because of the remote possibility of pulling a big card that has been inflated in value because of extreme overbidding or manipulation by elitists or corporations or whatever is causing serial numbered rookie cards to be priced like exotic automobiles.  If you're buying retail packages and selling them for close to the sticker price, then good for you.  If you're marking them up to double or more, then you're part of the problem.  You are depriving others access to cards by either wiping out the supply in the area or pricing collectors out of the market.

The card companies have been hyping rookies since the 80's.  Now they have help from the "influencers".  A lot of their content is about when to sell and what's hot and what's tanking in value.  It's almost always about the money.  Now like I said, there's nothing wrong with a little entrepreneurship, but to me that's sort of a shallow reason to be involved in the hobby.  Unless you are a fan of some player or team and have a personal collection that you either fund from your sales or keep from collections that you supply your business with, you have no more attachment to the product than someone investing in coal futures or pork bellies.  It's not that I think investing is "evil" per se, but it's kinda less...authentic maybe?

Now all the high dollar rookie cards I need to finish sets are priced out of reach.  Why?  Because a bunch of rich guys thought it would be fun to drive up prices?  Because there are all these new people that believe the hype?  I don't know.  But I'd rather do without then pay four digits or more for a Jim Brown or Alex Ovechkin that used to be a few hundred bucks.  I won't participate in this "new market".  I'll just look for other things instead.

But with all the hype around rookies, what is the future going to bring?  Will there even be base cards in the new sets by Fanatics?  Will there even be physical cards for that matter?  Maybe it's the end of a lot of the things I collect.  The product of this new era may turn out to be a finite limit on cards I want.  That's fine with me.  There are plenty of vintage sets, oddballs, junk wax, etc. that I can still seek out.  Will just have to ignore the big rookies in them all.  I'll be at the dime and dollar boxes....see you there?